1818-4049 3033-635X Власть и управление на Востоке России. Power and administration in the East of Russia. CRTAMF https://elibrary.ru/CRTAMF Научная статья Original article Инвестиционные взаимодействия стран Северо-Восточной Азии: влияние процессов фрагментации в мировой экономике Investment Interactions in Northeast Asia: the Impact of Fragmentation Processes in the Global Economy Суслов Денис Владимирович Суслов Денис Владимирович Suslov Denis V. suslov@ecrin.ru 0000-0001-5866-4369 Институт экономических исследований ДВО РАН (Хабаровск, Россия) The Economic Research Institute FEB RAS (Khabarovsk, Russia) 30 12 2025 2025 4(113) 8 25 20 10 2025 26 11 2025 24 11 2025 © Д. В. Суслов, 2025 2025 Д. В. Суслов D. V. Suslov https://elibrary.ru/CRTAMF

В статье показаны общемировые и региональные (для стран Северо-Восточной Азии) современные тенденции движения прямых иностранных инвестиции в 2015–2024 гг. Наблюдаемые процессы фрагментации в мировой экономике кардинально меняют ландшафт прямых иностранных инвестиций в Северо-Восточной Азии. Регион Северо-Восточной Азии перестал быть монолитным «производственным цехом» глобальной экономики. В настоящее время Северо-Восточная Азия представляет собой сложную мозаику взаимосвязанных, но все более сегментированных потоков капитала в форме прямых иностранных инвестиций, где решения об инвестициях принимаются под влиянием не только чисто рыночных оценок, но и с учетом геополитических рисков и соображений национальной безопасности и стремления к устойчивости (или минимизации неопределенности). Экономика Китая адаптируется к этим процессам, Япония и Республика Корея диверсифицируют потоки прямых иностранных инвестиций, а регион Юго-Восточной Азии в целом выигрывает от этого перераспределения инвестиций.

The paper examines current global and regional (for Northeast Asian countries) trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2015–2024. The identified fragmentation processes in world economy are fundamentally changing the FDI landscape in Northeast Asia. The region is no longer a monolithic «world factory» of a global economy. Today the region represents a complex mosaic of interconnected but fragmented capital flows in the form of FDI, where investment decisions are based on market assessments, taking into account geopolitical risks, national security considerations, and sustainability desire (or uncertainty minimization). China’s economy is adapting to these processes, Japan and the Republic of Korea are diversifying FDI flows. The Southeast Asian region as a whole is benefiting from this investment redistribution.

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DOI: doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112806 20. Japan Bank for International Cooperation. Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations by Japanese Manufacturing Companies. JBIC 35th Survey, 2023. URL: https://www.jbic.go.jp/en/information/press/press-2023/image/000005848.pdf (дата обращения: 10.08.2024) 21. Kallen, Cody (2025). Breaking Up: Fragmentation in Foreign Direct Investmentю International Finance Discussion Papers 1413. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. DOI: doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2025.1413 22. Kong, B., & Ku, J. (Eds.). (2015). Energy Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia (1st ed.). Routledge. DOI: doi.org/10.4324/9781315767949 23. Kyung Mi, Kim (2020) The Korean Developmental State. Springer Books. DOI: doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-3465-2 24. Latorre, M. C., Hosoe, N. (2016) The role of Japanese FDI in China // Journal of Policy Modeling, no. 38, рр. 226–241. DOI: dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.02.003 25. Lee, G. (2018) Branstetter, Namho Kwon. 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(2024) The economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation (No. 8/2024), BoF Economics Review, 2024. URL: publications.bof.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/53827/bpb824.pdf (дата обращения: 30.09.2025) 30. Shekhar Aiyar, Davide Malacrino, Andrea F. Presbitero (2024) Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows. European Journal of Political Economy, vol. 83, 102508. DOI: doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102508 31. Xie, Y., Yu, X., Yu, Z., & Zhou, Y. (2024). Spatial outward FDI: Evidence from China’s multinational firms. Review of International Economics, 32(2), 574–603. DOI: doi.org/10.1111/roie.12698 32. Yuanyuan Liu, Yilin Zhao, Xiaming Liu (2025) Institutional action, institutional entrepreneurship, and China’s inward FDI policy: A co-evolution analysis, International Business Review, vol. 34, is. 1, 102342. DOI: doi.org/10.1016/j.ibusrev.2024.102342 33. Zhan, J. X. (2021) GVC transformation and a new investment landscape in the 2020s: Driving forces, directions, and a forward-looking research and policy agenda Journal of International Business Policy, no. 4 (2), pp. 206–220. DOI: doi.org/10.1057/s42214-020-00088-0